WeSCoS Colloquium＃08/Hydrosphere Science Seminar “The rise of the machines & the journey of imagination” By Hannah Cloke OBE (Professor, University of Reading, UK) and Florian Pappenberger (Director of Forecast, ECMWF, UK）

WeSCoS Colloquium #08/Hydrosphere Science Seminar “The rise of the machines & the journey of imagination”
Presenters: Hannah Cloke OBE (Professor, University of Reading, UK) and Florian Pappenberger (Director of Forecast, ECMWF, UK）
Date and time: 13th May, 2024 15:00~17:00 (Japan Time)
Abstract:
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is making exciting developments in using Machine learning to create an earth system model for forecasting weather, ocean and land surface days to months ahead. In this talk we review the latest developments and compare Machine learning forecasts with traditional physics based forecasts for extreme weather events across the globe. We also show some Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with Machine Learning. The Machine Learning forecasts are doing very impressively and are already outperforming traditional forecasts in some areas, with the skill of precipitation 2 days ahead of traditional forecasts
We then turn to the challenge of forecasting surprise floods and show how we are getting better at seeing the future and forecasting the possibility of extreme floods, using examples from recent severe flood events around the world. We discuss how forecasts from earth system models (including machine learning models) are completely pointless unless people know what to do when a flood happens. We show that Imagination is essential in being able to take decisions to keep families, communities and nations safe from dangerous floods .

Venue: Zoom (Pre-registration is required. Please register from here.)
Language: English

*This Colloquium is Co-organized with Hydrosphere Science Seminar, Hydrosphere Environment Group, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo.
*The WeSCoS colloquium is part of the Moonshot-type R&D project Objective 8.
The colloquium in the core research ‘Control theory of weather-social coupled systems to support social decision-making’ is open to the public.
*WeSCoS stands for Weather-Society Coupling/Control System.